Sunday, November 1, 2020

The all cause mortality rate seems to be going down

First, an overview. Epidemics and pandemics are notable mostly for their lethality. The common cold virus can produce huge case numbers but low lethality, and generally we are not nearly as concerned.

Cases can go up while mortality goes down. As I understand it this is pretty normal toward the end of epidemics and pandemics. Reasons given are viruses are becoming less lethal due to better treatments, increasing herd immunity, viral mutations that decrease virulence, and the most vulnerable populations have sadly decreased in number.

CDC publishes the all cause mortality for the US...the red + marks above the blue bars signify above average all cause mortality rates. The bars are going down but we need to see a number of weeks with no red + marks, we have one now, so we seem to be getting there. If that keeps up it is good news. Many countries are publishing similar all cause mortality data that show the covid-19 pandemic is potentially over. But we cannot predict the future, meanwhile we are still in the period for caution with masks, distancing, and frequent hand washing.

The current CDC chart for US all cause mortality:

which can be seen full size and 
tracked at this page

The CDC has not posted new bars for the past few weeks. The disclaimer on the CDC page below the chart says this is normal. We can hope so. Other countries have been showing normal rates for some time now. A potential concern is the independence of the CDC from the influence of big pharma. Will the CDC publish data that essentially says the pandemic is over before we can get vaccines to the public? Would this have anything to do with the massive "rushed science" (and potentially unsafe) effort for covid-19 vaccine development?

THE CDC claims to be politically and financially independent, but that may not be the case:

The number of CDC mandatory vaccinations has risen exponentially in the last two decades. Does that reflect corresponding exponential increases in the quality of science, or potential contamination by unconscious profit bias? A fair question, and one we can be reasonably sure is not going to be subjected to the scrutiny of studies by independent bodies anytime soon.

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