Thursday, April 23, 2020

News out of California - broad based population tests for Corona antibodies are controversial

We've have no idea what % of population has been infected but never turned up at a hospital or even their doctors office. We've needed broad testing of the population for antibodies that gives up an idea of the % infected in the general population. Calif has just begun doing that now that fast blood tests for antibodies are available. If the initial numbers hold in expanded ongoing testing the ratio of death to infection is something like 0.2%, about the same as the seasonal flu.

Critics are having a hard time thinking this could even be close to true for understandable reasons. But epidemiologists have known this is a real possibility all along. Some worry these numbers will give the wrong idea and the rigorous standards in place to flatten the curve will relax with disastrous result. On the other hand it may turn out looking back with historic data we'll see the progression of the virus would have been about the same either way.

If so, why the big panic? Interconnectedness at new levels? (all news all the time and the internet).

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