Friday, November 27, 2020

Letter to a friend

 In our conversation toward the end you asked a question and I didn't give a complete answer. Many people do not have to resort to extreme diets to avoid diabetes and other problems of dietary excess. They don't have to go on diets to lose weight. Why some and not others? There's an overarching issue, and aspects of that issue. Basically it comes down to quality of calories, and how many calories are consumed vs burned. It's not a mystery, but in the modern world we are mystified, and as a result many of us develop health problems that are dietary in origin. These health problems can take many forms, collectively they are known as "metabolic syndrome". Here's the Mayo Clinic page for metabolic syndrome https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/metabolic-syndrome/symptoms-causes/syc-20351916

Ironically allopathic medicine isn't very good at treating this condition. I base that on the fact the vast majority of people with the condition end up in doctors offices and are given medications that are not really helpful. The only real fix is dietary, and doctors are not in the business of teaching lifestyle change. For people in that situation lifestyle change is typically difficult, we unconsciously associate survival with early dietary patterns. We really need a psychotherapy focused on lifestyle change, but current psychotherapy doesn't do that. Meanwhile current conventional treatment is not effective for the most part.

That is the reason movements like paleo and whole food plant based spring up, grass roots solutions that can be very effective. These provide cultural support for new dietary patterns, which helps with the unconscious survival association problem. Without some kind of support along these lines, most find losing weight nearly impossible, the yo-yo diet problem. "Diets don't work" for a variety of reasons, one of them is we tend to think of them as a fix as opposed to a permanent change of lifestyle. Permanence requires underlying cultural support.

Vegan and paleo are pretty vague terms, hostess twinkies, basically just a metabolic poison, are "vegan". The better term is whole food. As a plant based person I frequently send people who would be receptive to the plant based approach to The Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine in DC for information and perspective. https://www.pcrm.org/ They have been effective in holding the FDA's feet to the fire in various ways, one is the influence they've had on the Dietary Guidelines Committee who update recommendations every 5 years. The Physicians Committee has been effective in countering the influence on the recommendations process from industrial groups with big DC lobby organizations.

Most people are not receptive to the plant based approach, although that is changing rapidly at this point, and for them paleo will be the "accessible" solution.

To summarize, some people do not have to think very much about eating more healthfully because they were raised that way, and are more resistant to the processed food industry's tidal wave of toxic "food like" substances deliberately engineered to be addictive. In addition to manufactured addictive "foods" are other factors: the fast food restaurant industry, our overall inability to stem the tide of toxins disguised as food, and conventional medicine's inability to address the problem. The combination of these factors has produced a developed world health disaster that is particularly pernicious in the US.

Consider one statistic alone: Covid related mortality in the US from the beginning of this epidemic, about 9 months now, is currently at 250.000. In any nine month rolling period US heart disease mortality runs at 600,000. But heart disease is reversed with a whole foods plant based diet, and rather quickly at that. 

Part of government resistance to supporting this is "former patients" who reverse metabolic (diet caused) health conditions will no longer "need" the variety pack of medications the pharmaceutical industry produces for metabolic conditions. In fact continuing these medications after conditions are cleared becomes dangerous to health. The combined revenue from these medications is probably where most of the profit is produced by the pharma industry (fact checking that angle of inquiry is not all that easy). Revenues lost by a whole cloth adaptation of whole food diets, especially a more plant based diet, would have sizeable negative impact on GDP, producing an economic problem at a point in time when developed world economies are laden with debt and already very fragile.

So we have a large scale health and economic conundrum on our hands, with no quick and easy solution. Meanwhile individuals can reverse all these metabolic syndrome conditions if they are lucky enough to bump into the right information, and motivated enough to make those changes.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Did they Get This Wrong About COVID?

I'm not going to say too much about this one, it's very controversial, but if you want to at least see a cogent introduction to the other side of the story I can suggest a look at this conversation.

https://youtu.be/yF3i_-2Bids




Monday, November 16, 2020

Performance, immunity, and longevity

This is one of the best interviews of Dr. Joel Fuhrman I've seen. Dr. Fuhrman is famous for coining the term "Nutritarian Diet", which is basically just a plant based diet with a high nutrient to calorie ratio, the exact opposite of the "empty calorie" standard American diet that is making us sick and killing us prematurely.

The Nutritarian Diet is not complicated, confusing, or hard to do. More of us should know about it!

Watch this if you have 1) athletic aspirations, 2) would like to have the strongest immune system possible, or 3) would like to be healthy, strong, and lucid right into your 80's and 90's.

Or all of the above!

https://youtu.be/5_Qc1r3DikU




Sunday, November 8, 2020

Progression of the Corona-19 Virus - Cases vs Mortality

The reason I'm looking at cases vs mortality is total cases are going to be higher at this point because more testing is being done. We're in the seasonal surge period (2nd wave) in the fall to Christmas period that epidemiologists have been predicting from early in the crisis.

This Wiki page aggregates national data for all countries individually and the entire globe totals. It seems to be reporting mortalities that are attributed to Covid and Covid related deaths as opposed to % above all cause mortality. I view the latter method as the more relevant, but the wiki page is easily accessed and tracked, and that's a good thing. The mortality rate speaks both to virulence and the progression of herd immunity. The country measures vary quite a lot, generally what we can expect to see, according to the focused protection advocates, is surges in cases due to seasonals and end of lockdown periods. The comparison of cases to mortality is instructive.

The Wiki page is available at this link

Starting with Sweden, cases are high.
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But mortality is staying low relative to cases, and most importantly, much lower than 1st wave stats.
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Other countries in EU
France, again very high levels of new cases, much of which due to more measurement.
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Mortality while quite high, tracking well below the 1st wave, indicating herd immunity is progressing.
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Austria, cases and mortality are both quite high.
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And here's the US, which, I think we can agree, didn't produce a viable version of either lockdown or focused.
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Mortality up a bit, but considerably lower than the 1st wave, which is good, but not nearly low enough for an all clear.
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The published science on pandemics is where the "focused protection" view is sourced. It seems to me that the primary motive for lockdown would be to delay herd immunity, the only rationale for which is "waiting for vaccine", but while releasing a "coiled spring effect" at lockdown end in the immuno naive population which is still quite numerous due to lockdown.

Going by the large % of commercials on standard TV by Big P and fast food it is reasonable to question the editorial influences on management. Much of the hysteria we have seen on standard channels were due to the understandable normal fears that occur in pandemics, but it certainly also seems to have been exacerbated by the media.

The focused protection approach negates considerably the "wait for vaccine" approach, which as we know in the case of a novel corona is quite long, even in accelerated development conditions.

The "old dog" Swedish epidemiologist Johan Giesecke predicted this "rolling lockdown" pattern and the additional difficulties produced by it in an interview dated April 17, which if you haven't seen is well worth a view IMHO:


Meanwhile, on to healthier times in politics and public health!

Thursday, November 5, 2020

The point isn't to eat "magic" plants

Some folks seem to have the idea if they can identify those few plants with "special" qualities they are good to go. They're on the hunt for the "silver bullet". Hate to say it, but there ain't no silver bullet. The point isn't special plants, it's simply plants in general, in the variety that provides the body with optimal levels of macro nutrients (carbs, proteins, and fats), and micronutrients (vitamins, minerals, etc).

That variety of plants is fruits and veg, whole grains, spuds, legumes, and some nuts and seeds. Leafy greens and beans for protein. There's a saying in the investing world the only free lunch is diversification. This variety is the dietary diversification that meets our needs for nutrition perfectly, in the least taxing way (does not drag energy down with digesting and detoxing).

This is the standard Whole Foods Plant Based Diet recommended by a growing group of MDs and Nutritionists. They recommend it because it works.

This group of foods has another advantage for people changing their diet, it's the foods we grew up eating, minus the animals. That makes the diet satisfying and familiar, which is important when changing life long habits.

Your taste buds will thank you, and it won't take long for your body to begin thanking you either.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

What does this "Focused Protection" thing look like?

 A very lucid introduction to some of the basic concepts of focused protection are expressed in this 11 minute interview of Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, one of the authors of The Great Barrington Declaration:

https://youtu.be/vPj5yYAgee8



Let's see more of this kind of discussion in the good ole US of A too.



Sunday, November 1, 2020

The all cause mortality rate seems to be going down

First, an overview. Epidemics and pandemics are notable mostly for their lethality. The common cold virus can produce huge case numbers but low lethality, and generally we are not nearly as concerned.

Cases can go up while mortality goes down. As I understand it this is pretty normal toward the end of epidemics and pandemics. Reasons given are viruses are becoming less lethal due to better treatments, increasing herd immunity, viral mutations that decrease virulence, and the most vulnerable populations have sadly decreased in number.

CDC publishes the all cause mortality for the US...the red + marks above the blue bars signify above average all cause mortality rates. The bars are going down but we need to see a number of weeks with no red + marks, we have one now, so we seem to be getting there. If that keeps up it is good news. Many countries are publishing similar all cause mortality data that show the covid-19 pandemic is potentially over. But we cannot predict the future, meanwhile we are still in the period for caution with masks, distancing, and frequent hand washing.

The current CDC chart for US all cause mortality:

which can be seen full size and 
tracked at this page

The CDC has not posted new bars for the past few weeks. The disclaimer on the CDC page below the chart says this is normal. We can hope so. Other countries have been showing normal rates for some time now. A potential concern is the independence of the CDC from the influence of big pharma. Will the CDC publish data that essentially says the pandemic is over before we can get vaccines to the public? Would this have anything to do with the massive "rushed science" (and potentially unsafe) effort for covid-19 vaccine development?

THE CDC claims to be politically and financially independent, but that may not be the case:

The number of CDC mandatory vaccinations has risen exponentially in the last two decades. Does that reflect corresponding exponential increases in the quality of science, or potential contamination by unconscious profit bias? A fair question, and one we can be reasonably sure is not going to be subjected to the scrutiny of studies by independent bodies anytime soon.